rising sea levels

RE: rising sea levels




Squid, actually took a class with Sagan. Showed up for lectures in cowboy boots. Could be wrong but I believe he is the one who coined the term "greenhouse gases", based on his studies of Venus. That's one hot planet!

I'm more interested in global warming and the rising sea levels in the last few decades, not the Long Island glacial till epoch and the hills and valleys it carved out of Upstate NY, mostly pointing south, Bering Sea bridge and all that. Finger lakes are a good example of what the ice age gouged out.

10 degree warmer water in the Arctic, now? Tundra melting, now? Vanishing polar bears and habitat, now? A huge ice shelf in the eastern Antarctic that might finish cracking and fall into the ocean any day now, raising sea levels X feet immediately? Greenland glaciers melting much faster than anyone predicted, now? Miami flooding all the time at high tide? Is Norfolk having the same flooding problems as Miami (a vague recollection)?

I just can't make any sense out of investing in OBX real estate when I can rent. Seems like OBX is living on borrowed time. Love it dearly, but not going to invest here. Will continue to rent until I'm gone or OBX is gone, whichever occurs first.





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RE: rising sea levels




Thanks, J4. It's a tough call.


RE: rising sea levels





The debate here is are we causing it? That’s a topic I refuse to discuss, but the sea level is rising.

Squid Pro Quo

I don't think anyone is saying we are causing it. If they are, they are wrong. The real question is are we accelerating it. The heating and cooling cycles are well known and accepted now (thanks science). If anyone is saying we are causing it, then they don't really understand whats going on. We are definitely in a warming cycle. Is it happening faster than before, well, that does seem to be the case. What's the cause? That's the real question. It doesn't really matter though. We'll have to deal with it regardless.

Nature doesn't care who caused it. It's going to proceed regardless of us.

John


RE: rising sea levels




J4, yes, we do have to deal with it regardless.

If we are accelerating it at, say, 10 X the natural increase, aren't we causing it? Isn't the natural rate of increase in that scenario almost irrelevant?

I'm guessing Sagan would say the annual increase in CO2 we are adding to the atmosphere is causing a significant rise in global warming.

We're setting annual records for CO2 increase. Will reach the tipping point in, what, 12 years?


RE: rising sea levels




J4, yes, we do have to deal with it regardless.

If we are accelerating it at, say, 10 X the natural increase, aren't we causing it? Isn't the natural rate of increase in that scenario almost irrelevant?

I'm guessing Sagan would say the annual increase in CO2 we are adding to the atmosphere is causing a significant rise in global warming.

We're setting annual records for CO2 increase. Will reach the tipping point in, what, 12 years?

Crunch


You need to clarify the “ We’re “ part of your conclusion. The US has decreased it’s carbon footprint. China and India, definitely not.


RE: rising sea levels




We, as in human beings on the planet. The trend in the US is starting to go back up.


RE: rising sea levels





We're setting annual records for CO2 increase. Will reach the tipping point in, what, 12 years?

Crunch

Be very careful in throwing out numbers. Some will say we've reached the tipping point already, some say 15 years, some say 25 years.

I agree with everything you're saying. I'm basically done arguing with the climate change deniers. Been there, done that, it's still happening regardless.

John


RE: rising sea levels




Understood, J4. Didn't mean to suggest that is set in stone, simply the number I keep hearing.

Whether we've already hit the tipping point, or it is 12 years away, or 25 years away, it is starting to get scary now. All hell will break loose if there is a big spash in the Antarctic.


RE: rising sea levels





We're setting annual records for CO2 increase. Will reach the tipping point in, what, 12 years?

Crunch

Be very careful in throwing out numbers. Some will say we've reached the tipping point already, some say 15 years, some say 25 years.

I agree with everything you're saying. I'm basically done arguing with the climate change deniers. Been there, done that, it's still happening regardless.

John

J4yDubs


Do a little searching on the Co2 tipping point and you'll get predictions all over the place. Anywhere from it's here now to 15, 25 years all the way to significant changes at the turn of the century when levels could hit 1200 ppm. All speculation. I'm not equipped to say what's goofy science to drive green business or what is real but most seem to be guessing at it. A lot of interesting reading though.


RE: rising sea levels




Let's not also forget, in addition to rising water level, the natural accretion (westward movement of barrier islands on the east coast) that occurs (depending on dune formation, location, and a zillion other variables).

Perhaps the most visible example being the Ocean City MD inlet. Compare the "hardened" southern tip of Ocean City and the "natural" northern tip of Assateague - created during the 1933 hurricane.








RE: rising sea levels




Very interesting, OceanBlue. Thanks for pointing this out and providing the photo. Pretty dramatic difference.


RE: rising sea levels




Interesting article attached.


"SIGNS SINCE THE GLACIERS WON’T GO AWAY ALREADY
Mark Meckler June 9, 2019 Big Government, Featured, News
Glacier National Park in Montana has signs around the park that ominously read “Gone by 2020.” Park officials wanted visitors to know that these glaciers would eventually melt completely and cause a ripple effect of climate disaster.

But reality is a stubborn thing, and those pesky glaciers still keep on existing.

As we approach 2020, the year about which the park officials were warning us, these doomsday signs are disappearing – not the glaciers.

Visitors from Lysander Spooner University noticed the change:

Officials at Glacier National Park (GNP) have begun quietly removing and altering signs and government literature which told visitors that the Park’s glaciers were all expected to disappear by either 2020 or 2030.

In recent years the National Park Service prominently featured brochures, signs and films which boldly proclaimed that all glaciers at GNP were melting away rapidly. But now officials at GNP seem to be scrambling to hide or replace their previous hysterical claims while avoiding any notice to the public that the claims were inaccurate. Teams from Lysander Spooner University visiting the Park each September have noted that GNP’s most famous glaciers such as the Grinnell Glacier and the Jackson Glacier appear to have been growing—not shrinking—since about 2010. (The Jackson Glacier—easily seen from the Going-To-The-Sun Highway—may have grown as much as 25% or more over the past decade.)

Well, that’s awkward.

Sort of like having a goodbye party for someone at the office and they never quite leave.

Here’s a novel idea. How about the national Park service staying out of the climate hysteria business altogether?


RE: rising sea levels




One more annoying topic.........

In the 1970's scientists were predicting the coming of the next ICE AGE, we should have all been frozen to death or eaten by wooly mammoths by now !


RE: rising sea levels




One more annoying topic.........

In the 1970's scientists were predicting the coming of the next ICE AGE, we should have all been frozen to death or eaten by wooly mammoths by now !

ish


Agree with ish. We went from global cooling, ice age alarm, to upper atmosphere holes due to aerosols, to global warming due to to climate change caused by people, cows and buildings exhaling CO2 and methane, , to renamed global climate disruption, to rising sea level caused by people - all seeking the same thing. Control and "carbon" tax revenues and control of people. This is an old and worn out premise which has prostituted "science" for politics and govt budget plus ups. It's all bs. Heaven forbid anyone disagree...we become dismissed as "deniers."


RE: rising sea levels




ish and hatterasnc - the glaciers in Glacier National Park and those further north in Canada's Jasper National Park are receding at an alarming rate, as they are all over the world. You can confirm this personally by visiting them and walking the ground they used to cover. National Geographic probably also has pictures of the shrinkage.


RE: rising sea levels




ish and hatterasnc - the glaciers in Glacier National Park and those further north in Canada's Jasper National Park are receding at an alarming rate, as they are all over the world. You can confirm this personally by visiting them and walking the ground they used to cover. National Geographic probably also has pictures of the shrinkage.

Crunch


New methods of measurement with better technology and a bias will spread anecdotal evidence faster than the speed of fact.
You claim something. Prove it scientifically, not by telling others to go visit it.
Alarming rate? What rate? All over the world?? Where?


RE: rising sea levels




Hatterasnc - go visit it. We're talking hundreds of feet, not millimeters. Measurement technology is irrelevant. Search National Geographic.



RE: rising sea levels




So, you have no basis other than a claim. Got it.


RE: rising sea levels




No, not correct. Not a claim. Have seen it.

Visit it. Research National Geographic.


RE: rising sea levels




Hatterasnc - go visit it. We're talking hundreds of feet, not millimeters. Measurement technology is irrelevant. Search National Geographic.

Crunch


I showed earlier in the thread that "rising sea levels" have had zero impact in the Salvo area. Below is a graphic showing 168 years worth of shoreline measurements in Kill Devil Hills with the latest line being from 2016. The shoreline in this part of KDH has fluctuated a grand total of 160 feet over 168 years. These are actual local measurements as referenced earlier in the thread. Measurements do count, especially these as it pertains to this board.

I am sure that glaciers are shrinking in some places in the world and I am sure that there are places in the world where glaciers are expanding. So what. I can personally do absolutely nothing about that. You are saying with almost certainty that we are fools for purchasing property as they will be underwater soon. You certainly are entitled to your opinion and you can choose not to own property in the Outer Banks. But your opinion that the Outer Banks will be underwater soon is quite ridiculous given that I have shown you two 168 year snippets that contradict your opinion.

There are many other areas from Duck to Hatteras Village that contradict your opinion on how rising sea levels will impact properties in the Outer Banks. I think that you are also forgetting that governments have tools at their disposal such as beach replenishment. The Ocean City, MD/Assateague photo above proves my point as well. Just like Dare County uses beach replenishment, it's obvious that either Ocean City, MD local government or Worcester Co. MD government is heavily involved and invested in keeping their beaches where they are currently.





RE: rising sea levels




Curry, government also has the tool of taxation to pay for nourishment. Good luck!


RE: rising sea levels




Curry, government also has the tool of taxation to pay for nourishment. Good luck!

Crunch


They sure do.

You pay for it in your rental taxes, I pay for it in my property taxes and when nourishment actually occurs in an area, the county will implement a special nourishment assessment on the properties that actually benefit from the particular nourishment.


RE: rising sea levels




Yes, and I can easily choose not to rent if the taxes get too high, and I don't have to take a loss. You might have more difficulty avoiding those taxes and you might have to take a loss if you do sell, right?


RE: rising sea levels




Yes, and I can easily choose not to rent if the taxes get too high, and I don't have to take a loss. You might have more difficulty avoiding those taxes and you might have to take a loss if you do sell, right?

Crunch


I don't think the Outer Banks rental market is going to crash if you decide to rent elsewhere.

Instead of worrying about my situation in Dare Co., you should probably be much more concerned about the gargantuan taxes you are most likely paying in NYC.


RE: rising sea levels




Anybody who rents can get out at any time with no financial loss, low risk. Same can't necessarily be said for anyone who owns.


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