rising sea levels

RE: rising sea levels




Anybody who rents can get out at any time with no financial loss, low risk. Same can't necessarily be said for anyone who owns.

Crunch


Lower risk = lower returns
Higher risk = higher returns

I have had many ups and downs in my investing life. Been around for a while. I have never lost money on a real estate transaction personally up to this date, although I know that many did lose in real estate, especially around 2008. Real Estate is up there as the first or second best investment someone can make.

Where else can you purchase a 3 or 4 BR oceanfront home in the US in an area that has had a stable dune line for 167 years for under $500k? Only in the Outer Banks. Same house in Bethany Beach, DE will be about $1.8M. Probably looking at around $1M+ in Florida. Jersey $hore - $$$$+.

Your argument about rising sea levels could apply to any community along any coast in the world. I think that you have to analyze each opportunity separately. You may be better suited to purchase a mountain property.




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RE: rising sea levels




Couldn't agree with you more, curry, about analyzing each opportunity separately, including mountain property. Not wedded to beach property, but we really like OBX. I suppose that could change if the water was always as cold as it was earlier this week. Otherwise, as I've said elsewhere, it's just right.

Don't need to make the investment, don't need to take the risk, but would if the lack of downside was compelling. Not there yet. Renting works fine.

Yes, rising sea levels apply all along the east coast. Not just an OBX problem. Hurricane problem is a bit more focused there, though.

We were there for Matthew and watched the surf come right up over the beach road. That was a relatively tame storm as I recall, and begs the question of what a big one would do.


RE: rising sea levels




No, not correct. Not a claim. Have seen it.

Visit it. Research National Geographic.

Crunch



To quote a great song.........." It's the circle of life "


RE: rising sea levels




Couldn't agree with you more, curry, about analyzing each opportunity separately, including mountain property. Not wedded to beach property, but we really like OBX. I suppose that could change if the water was always as cold as it was earlier this week. Otherwise, as I've said elsewhere, it's just right.

Don't need to make the investment, don't need to take the risk, but would if the lack of downside was compelling. Not there yet. Renting works fine.

Yes, rising sea levels apply all along the east coast. Not just an OBX problem. Hurricane problem is a bit more focused there, though.

We were there for Matthew and watched the surf come right up over the beach road. That was a relatively tame storm as I recall, and begs the question of what a big one would do.

Crunch


A big one created Oregon Inlet, long before all of this sea level rise/global warming Groupthink.


RE: rising sea levels




Thanks, curry. I saw something similar a few months back further up OBX that showed more erosion. My recollection is that the rate of change is accelerating quite a bit, if not alarmingly so, at least in some areas. I don't remember the details now, but I think nourishment is now going on in NH now every 6 years or so? Does that sound right?

Crunch


The last Beach Nourishment in Nags Head was in the sumer of 2011,



RE: rising sea levels




Hatterasnc - go visit it. We're talking hundreds of feet, not millimeters. Measurement technology is irrelevant. Search National Geographic.

Crunch


I showed earlier in the thread that "rising sea levels" have had zero impact in the Salvo area. Below is a graphic showing 168 years worth of shoreline measurements in Kill Devil Hills with the latest line being from 2016. The shoreline in this part of KDH has fluctuated a grand total of 160 feet over 168 years. These are actual local measurements as referenced earlier in the thread. Measurements do count, especially these as it pertains to this board.

I am sure that glaciers are shrinking in some places in the world and I am sure that there are places in the world where glaciers are expanding. So what. I can personally do absolutely nothing about that. You are saying with almost certainty that we are fools for purchasing property as they will be underwater soon. You certainly are entitled to your opinion and you can choose not to own property in the Outer Banks. But your opinion that the Outer Banks will be underwater soon is quite ridiculous given that I have shown you two 168 year snippets that contradict your opinion.

There are many other areas from Duck to Hatteras Village that contradict your opinion on how rising sea levels will impact properties in the Outer Banks. I think that you are also forgetting that governments have tools at their disposal such as beach replenishment. The Ocean City, MD/Assateague photo above proves my point as well. Just like Dare County uses beach replenishment, it's obvious that either Ocean City, MD local government or Worcester Co. MD government is heavily involved and invested in keeping their beaches where they are currently.

curry301


Just to provide a total picture of the erosion/water levels/accretion situation, search northern tri villages (Rodanthe in particular). Yes, while south of the Rodanthe Pier is relatively stable, points north, not so much.

The populations/tax base/insurance exposure of high density coastal areas determines who gets beach re nourishment and who doesn't and to what extent, if any, the benefactors pay for it. Example, beach re nourishment is a "perpetual" go for the southern peninsula BUT was a one time only (until jug handled bridge is complete) for Mirlo Beach - the insurance exposure/tax base isn't enough to warrant county funded beach re nourishment there.

And, OBX is just a snipet - all up and down the east coast folks are realizing what us waterbilly's have known all our lives - coastal is only temporary. Lest we not forget living/hanging out on the shore is a relatively recent phenomenon - earlier in the last century, folks that lived on the water did so because they couldn't afford to live anywhere else.

What some folks are doing to thwart it is beyond belief - areas on the evaporating eastern shore of Nantucket being a prime example.

Not making a political/judgement call as to the source - just that it's happening. Be it sinking land, accretion, erosion, rising water levels.... whatever, the relative water level is rising. Period. Full Stop.

Oh, and the occasional storm, can change all of that in a heartbeat.




RE: rising sea levels




Good info, OceanBlue. I don't recall what shoreline map I looked at some months ago, but it was farther north than Rodanthe and the erosion was quite a bit more than that on curry's map, and was accelerating in more recent times.

Glad you mentioned the occasional storm problem. Aside from everything else, one big bad storm can wipe out a lot. As I understand it, OBX is just sand - no bedrock anywhere to anchor things. That surf from Matthew made quick work of the sand under the beach road.

Miami will likely be the first to go. The problem they will probably have is that they will run out of money trying to elevate the city and its infrastructure.

BTW, the Athabasca Gracier in Canada's Jasper National Park is receding at the rate of 16 ft per year. It has receded about a mile in the last 125 years and has lost half its volume in that time period. Alarm bells have been going off in the last few days and months about the accelerating loss of glaciers in both western Canada and Alaska. National Geographic had an online article in the last few days that the Alaska glaciers are melting 100xs faster than previously thought. Click to follow link... . Study was originally published in Science, top-shelf.


RE: rising sea levels




BTW, OceanBlue, what is Nantucket doing?


RE: rising sea levels




Thanks, Whaler9818. Wasn't sure when it was last done. So roughly 8 years between nourishments. Can the tax base support that frequency, if it continues?


RE: rising sea levels




One more annoying topic.........

In the 1970's scientists were predicting the coming of the next ICE AGE, we should have all been frozen to death or eaten by wooly mammoths by now !

ish

This is an incorrect statement that has been debunked several times over. The majority consensus was warming. Were there some ice age predictions? Sure, but that's not how science works. I don't know why people keep repeating this falsehood. Ok, maybe I do know why...

Click to follow link...

Click to follow link...

Click to follow link...



RE: rising sea levels




Thanks, J4. Good stuff.

There's also a good SkepticalScience link to the Athabasca Glacier Click to follow link... .


RE: rising sea levels




Hatterasnc - go visit it. We're talking hundreds of feet, not millimeters. Measurement technology is irrelevant. Search National Geographic.

Crunch


I showed earlier in the thread that "rising sea levels" have had zero impact in the Salvo area. Below is a graphic showing 168 years worth of shoreline measurements in Kill Devil Hills with the latest line being from 2016. The shoreline in this part of KDH has fluctuated a grand total of 160 feet over 168 years. These are actual local measurements as referenced earlier in the thread. Measurements do count, especially these as it pertains to this board.

I am sure that glaciers are shrinking in some places in the world and I am sure that there are places in the world where glaciers are expanding. So what. I can personally do absolutely nothing about that. You are saying with almost certainty that we are fools for purchasing property as they will be underwater soon. You certainly are entitled to your opinion and you can choose not to own property in the Outer Banks. But your opinion that the Outer Banks will be underwater soon is quite ridiculous given that I have shown you two 168 year snippets that contradict your opinion.

There are many other areas from Duck to Hatteras Village that contradict your opinion on how rising sea levels will impact properties in the Outer Banks. I think that you are also forgetting that governments have tools at their disposal such as beach replenishment. The Ocean City, MD/Assateague photo above proves my point as well. Just like Dare County uses beach replenishment, it's obvious that either Ocean City, MD local government or Worcester Co. MD government is heavily involved and invested in keeping their beaches where they are currently.

curry301


Just to provide a total picture of the erosion/water levels/accretion situation, search northern tri villages (Rodanthe in particular). Yes, while south of the Rodanthe Pier is relatively stable, points north, not so much.

The populations/tax base/insurance exposure of high density coastal areas determines who gets beach re nourishment and who doesn't and to what extent, if any, the benefactors pay for it. Example, beach re nourishment is a "perpetual" go for the southern peninsula BUT was a one time only (until jug handled bridge is complete) for Mirlo Beach - the insurance exposure/tax base isn't enough to warrant county funded beach re nourishment there.

And, OBX is just a snipet - all up and down the east coast folks are realizing what us waterbilly's have known all our lives - coastal is only temporary. Lest we not forget living/hanging out on the shore is a relatively recent phenomenon - earlier in the last century, folks that lived on the water did so because they couldn't afford to live anywhere else.

What some folks are doing to thwart it is beyond belief - areas on the evaporating eastern shore of Nantucket being a prime example.

Not making a political/judgement call as to the source - just that it's happening. Be it sinking land, accretion, erosion, rising water levels.... whatever, the relative water level is rising. Period. Full Stop.

Oh, and the occasional storm, can change all of that in a heartbeat.

OceanBlue


I will focus on the Rodanthe/Waves/Salvo area just for discussion.

Sure, the Mirlo Beach area of Rodanthe has been eroding at a rate of about 14 ft/yr. for a very long time. Not the place to buy a house if you are concerned about erosion. Great place to rent though.

In contrast, areas around Salvo have a beach that is accreting (growing) at a rate of up to 2 ft./yr.

It's simple - if you are concerned about erosion and want to live near the oceanfront, don't buy in the areas with the thick red lines. Buy in areas with green lines or no lines. The graphic below depicts published 2019 erosion rates that are pending adoption.

Funny how there is no mention that any of these areas will be under water anytime soon.





ncdenr.maps.arcgis.com/ap...


RE: rising sea levels





Funny how there is no mention that any of these areas will be under water anytime soon.

curry301

After the jug handle is finished and they don't maintain the S curves anymore, I fully expect that area to have constant over wash, if not a new inlet. Just the nature of the barrier islands.

John


RE: rising sea levels





Funny how there is no mention that any of these areas will be under water anytime soon.

curry301

After the jug handle is finished and they don't maintain the S curves anymore, I fully expect that area to have constant over wash, if not a new inlet. Just the nature of the barrier islands.

John

J4yDubs


The S curves will not be maintained anymore after the Jug Handle Bridge is completed. That road will quickly disappear. Hopefully, the roads will be kept open for the folks that own/rent in the Mirlo area after the Jug Handle is completed.

My involvement in this message board string was to address the claim that it's foolish to buy property in the Outer Banks because it will all be underwater soon. There was never a denial on my behalf that erosion is not occurring. Quite the contrary, erosion is occurring and has been for a very long time. But, the erosion has historically (last 168 years or so) been localized. A buyer that does their homework can find areas to purchase property on the Outer Banks that minimize their erosion risk as much as can be, all the while knowing that they are sitting on a barrier island which brings certain risks from that fact alone.




RE: rising sea levels




BTW, OceanBlue, what is Nantucket doing?

Crunch
Just owner funded bulldozers, cranes, all kinds of efforts to thwart the disappearing coast line.


RE: rising sea levels






The S curves will not be maintained anymore after the Jug Handle Bridge is completed. That road will quickly disappear. Hopefully, the roads will be kept open for the folks that own/rent in the Mirlo area after the Jug Handle is completed.

curry301


And will be a giant cul-de-sac. Kinda cool.

Jury is still out on what exactly will be done with the "old" Rt 12 (AKA S curves) north of the last houses in Rodanthe. Probably just let the "winter beach" claim is back as no more giant sandbags and dune building - there will still be needed access to the power lines (but they are west of 12). The part of 12 servicing Mirlo/Cross of Honor/etc will still be maintained by NCDOT, but certainly not with the sense of urgency when the only road to get off island.


RE: rising sea levels




Thanks, all. We'll take a closer look when we're down there next month.


RE: rising sea levels




BTW, OceanBlue, what is Nantucket doing?

Crunch
Just owner funded bulldozers, cranes, all kinds of efforts to thwart the disappearing coast line.

OceanBlue


One of the things they are doing up there are these 200 ft. long sand bags called geotubes.






RE: rising sea levels




BTW, OceanBlue, what is Nantucket doing?

Crunch
Just owner funded bulldozers, cranes, all kinds of efforts to thwart the disappearing coast line.

OceanBlue


These people with houses on the cliff should be worried. Nantucket (Sconset’s Baxter Road neighborhood).




RE: rising sea levels




Just a thought...
The NCDOT schematic showed the "S Curves" as being under water by 2050. I could but a house at Mirlo Beach today, and still never have to worry about losing it to erosion in my lifetime. You youngsters can let me know how that worked out someday.


RE: rising sea levels




BTW, OceanBlue, what is Nantucket doing?

Crunch
Just owner funded bulldozers, cranes, all kinds of efforts to thwart the disappearing coast line.

OceanBlue


One of the things are are doing up there are these 200 ft. long sand bags called geotubes.

curry301


Yup, and they are not really working. Similar "bags" are used at S turns. I only mention ACK ( I'm pretty familiar w that part of the world) as folks are learning that despite the scale of spend (and it is significant as you, being Manhattan, probably know) one cannot "beat" mother ocean.


RE: rising sea levels




Just a thought...
The NCDOT schematic showed the "S Curves" as being under water by 2050. I could but a house at Mirlo Beach today, and still never have to worry about losing it to erosion in my lifetime. You youngsters can let me know how that worked out someday.

ultrahog99


At the north end of Mirlo you'd better be on your deathbed as a few of those houses are close to being relo'd (as many already have) - Dare Co. tries not to let them "fall in" ....better to move.


RE: rising sea levels




No, hadn't heard about ACK, OceanBlue. Acquaintances have some property in MV, but they haven't said anything about erosion. Not beach property, though. As the saying goes for those on the beach, "Good luck with that!" Wouldn't want to get in an expensive fight with Mother Nature.

Yes, we are in Manhattan, west side, not too far from the Intrepid. In looking at the pictures posted of ACK, one thing we have going for us here is we're more or less on solid granite, scraped clean by the glaciers, more or less, although it does vary block to block. If we do decide to build seawalls and that sort of thing, and can afford it, might be pretty effective, at least in parts of Manhattan. Not so much in Queens where the ground is more like glacial outwash, I believe.

Hurricane Sandy flooded the Westside Highway up to the low to mid-40s or so. Westside piers on the Hudson were under water.

Might have to move in and get elevated with relatives upstate!


RE: rising sea levels




Crunch, Blue, Dubs - I am sure you are well-intentioned followers and believers. But this has gone so far off local issues and politics so as to be transferred to Cafe' or private messages. I wish you all the best as you all circle around and agree on your beliefs, and NYC, Nantucket, wherever.

For those of us on the ground, actually observing and having the opportunity to disagree and have sweet tea instead of the Kool-aid, we shall carry on. Somehow. With impending doom of manmade global warming/climate disruption/land subsidence/rising sea levels, or whatever the believers bring next.

Meantime, enjoy your vacations.


RE: rising sea levels





For those of us on the ground, actually observing and having the opportunity to disagree and have sweet tea instead of the Kool-aid, we shall carry on. Somehow.

hatterasnc

Wait a sec. Earlier in this very thread you replied to a post that asked you to go see for yourself and said:

"You claim something. Prove it scientifically, not by telling others to go visit it."

But now it's OK to actually observe something? Hmmm.

I have been trying to keep my replies Outer Banks related, but that's difficult in threads like this. I agree though, I think the thread has out lived it's lifespan.

I would like some of that sweet tea though...

John


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